Red Queens and Increasing Returns

Should current supply-demand curves be the primary source for data concerning predictions of future technological growth or obsolescence?  If so, then how are we to explain why certain technologies cause a reciprocal exponential growth, a technological “arms race” if you will, while other technologies fall by the wayside?

 

How would a movie be shown at home or in a classroom without exponential growth in technology that the shift from video-cassettes to DVD’s demonstrated so that what was once cost-prohibitive is now almost entirely free? (Anderson, 2004)  http://www.ted.com/talks/chris_anderson_of_wired_on_tech_s_long_tail.html 

These types of questions defy easy answers due to a mathematical likelihood of certain technologies growing exponentially, yet other technologies being eclipsed.  As Thornburg (2008c) commented, “the name ‘Red Queen’ is attached to certain phenomena when a competition between two forces results in the rapid development of them both.” (p. 12)

Thus, like the Red Queen who tells Alice that one must run as fast as one can just to keep running in the same place so also must technological growth be understood as exponential improvements driven by the innate human tendency, individual and organizational, to simply not be left behind.

Here, I am a case study in Red Queen technological adoption.  I own a 3G Android phone, drive a 2005 Nissan Altima and own two televisions, three CD players, a DVD player, two laptops, and all as a single 41 year old man, and solely as an attempt to remain viable.  I am “normal” to my peers simply because I am neither a “techie” nor am I a Luddite.  I own technology for the purposes of higher education, political networking, non-profit volunteer work and hopefully direct public service in the near future.  I rarely rent DVD’s due to lack of available time balancing 2 – 3 types of employment, completing an Ed.S., looking toward either a full Ph.D. or M.B.A. and other vocational commitments.  Thus, when asked to watch a video-clip I will first turn to You-Tube, but when the video is not present in its full form then Amazon.com is an option for purchasing a DVD if it represents a longer-term investment.  In fact, through a mail order company I was even able to purchase an entire set of DVD’s with excerpts on the Dead Sea Scrolls, Ancient Roman Ruins, Early Christianity, Ancient Imperial China and an entire library of similar subjects.  Although certainly a financial investment such technology has enhanced my own teaching, eased burdens of class preparation and vastly expanded my own knowledge base.  Thus, in some ways, perhaps I am now the Red Queen and with other humanities scholars, political leaders, et al now needing to keep pace.

 

References

Anderson, C. (2004).  Chris Anderson of Wired on tech’s long tail [Video].  Retrieved from

            http://www.ted.com/talks/chris_anderson_of_wired_on_tech_s_long_tail.html
Thornburg, D. (2008c).  Red Queens, butterflies, and strange attractors: Imperfect lenses

into emergent technologies.  Lake Barrington, IL: Thornburg Center for Space Exploration

G.P.S., Camcorders, Texting and Touch-Screens Oh-My . . .!!

At the beginning of the old 1939 movie  The Wizard of Oz, Dorothy, already befriended by the Tin Man (who only needed a heart) and the Scarecrow (who only needed a brain) are confronted with a mutual fear.  "Lions and Tigers and Bears, Oh My . . ."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NecK4MwOfeI

In many ways the greatest fears of the three oldest generations, the Greatest Generation (born prior to the 1930's), the Baby Boomers (born post-1940's) and the more recent increasingly graying band of Gen-Xer's (born late 1960's thru late 1970's) can be summed up by a similar refrain of "G.P.S., Camcorders, Texting and Touch-Screens Oh-My . . ."

How can a less tech-savvy three oldest generations manage to keep up?  When my first computer was a Commodore Vic-20 with 5k, when I actually owned a pong video-game, when I can remember when Mtv actually started then how can a 40 year old with increasing demands on my time, energy and financial resources keep up?  Okay, well, G.P.S., no problem.  Easy.  But, a G.P.S. on my Android phone?  Uhh, let me get back to you.

Camcorder?  Okay, wasn't that something that was about 18 inches by 5 inches in size for a smaller model in just the late 1990's?

Texting.  Okay.  That part is easy.

Touch-screen?!  Wait, why did I just type "Robert King" as "Rivert Jing" since my fingers always seem to hit the wrong keys while typing on a touch-screen?

Now, all of these devices are on my Android cell-phone?

http://www.techhive.com/product/collection/3286/top-10-android-phones.html

This move towards restructuring and codependency is described aptly by Kelly (2007, December) as an almost inevitable development.  What once was thought of as separate machines, built for distinct, independent functions are now all contained in one device.  Not only is one device used, but our self-understanding of technology has now changed due to such consolidation, restructuring, and codependency.

As Kevin Kelly described, "First of all, we have all these things in our hands.We think they're all separate devices, but in fact, every screen in the world is looking into the one machine. These are all basically portals into that one machine." (2007, December)

http://www.ted.com/talks/kevin_kelly_on_the_next_5_000_days_of_the_web.html

Umm, okay, when did this rhyme of history occur and why didn't anyone tell me?  Yes, I had a Blackberry-style phone with these functions, but let's face it, the quality simply was not the same as owning separate devices.  Now, Android phones function as accurately, precisely, quickly and easily as all three former devices, but with a rapid-fire touch-screen also?  I can now scroll through 50 names in my contacts list in about 2 - 3 seconds?

Here, three retrievals from human recorded history have been consolidated into one device.  

First, navigation is now within the reach of all human beings able to type into a small hand-held device.  No longer does one need precise mathematical skills, the ability to read the position of the stars and planets.  Just type in your location, where you wish to travel, and one is already 5,000 times more accurate than Christopher Columbus.

Second, recording visual images for posterity is no longer the work of Leonardo Da Vinci, in fact, even the ability to create a short motion picture superior in visual quality to The Wizard of Oz is right in the palm of one's hand.  "G.P.S., Camcorders, Texting and Touch-Screens Oh-My . . ."

Finally, the written word is no longer a message sent in a bottle with the hopes of possibly reaching a distant shore.  Just text.  You know, "O.M.G" or "LOL" or ";-)."  That's all it takes.  Human written communication is instant, spontaneous, and can take place, again, with the stroke of a few keys, but now with a device that would seem like a futuristic space-age impossibility even in just the 1960's.  Thus, especially for the Greatest Generation, even somewhat for the Baby Boomers, and occasionally even affecting we Gen-Xer's, truly this rhyme of history produced by Android phones can only be described with the refrain of mild trepidation, "G.P.S., Camcorders, Texting and Touch-Screens Oh-My . . ."

Reference

Kelly, K. (2007, December). Kevin Kelly on the next 5,000 days of

the Web [Speech]. Speech delivered at the EG 2007 Conference, 

Los Angeles. Retrieved October 11, 2012

fromhttp://www.ted.com/talks/kevin_kelly_on_the_next_5_000_days_of_the_web.html

Once there was no paper . . .

Once there was no paper.  As a Divinity student at Duke University (circa 1994 - 1997), following the collapse of my undergraduate Brother Word-Processor into several pieces as I was moving into my dorm room as a newly-minted Resident Adviser on Duke's West Campus, I quickly discovered how transitory technology can be.  For one year (1994 - 1995), due to having dropped my Brother Word-Processor on the floor, I struggled using the university dorm computer cluster, well, not actually "struggled" since I always had easy 24/7 access to the computers, located conveniently next to the laundry room, and only 40' or so from my dorm room.

Then, following a generous gift at the conclusion of a year-long ministerial internship, I was able to purchase my very first computer (with the exception of my old Commodore Vic-20 with a whopping 5k!!).  An Apple (of course), complete with Microsoft Word, and these strange devices called "storage disks" were how I understood computer technology for approximately the next decade.

According to Thornburg (2008b), technology can be analyzed by four distinct quadrants, how a new technology enhances a preexisting technological need, how it makes obsolete older technology, how it retrieves the content of an older set of needs, and how it reverses its own characteristics as it sets forth conditions for its own replacement (p. 2).

From such a tetrad a storage device, for example, a thumb-drive, can be described as it conveniently replaced older, bulky storage disks (which had replaced even bulkier "floppy disks"), how such storage devices enhance physical "transport-ability" of files, how it fills a need for such physical transport and how it retrieves even ancient, pre-modern forms of record-keeping. 

Storage Device (Thumb-Drive)

Enhances: Physical "Transport-ability" of Computer Files	Obsoletes: Bulky Computer Storage Disks
Reverses: Computer Files Needing a Physical Storage Device for Transport	Retrieves: Earlier Pre-Modern Forms of Record-Keeping, for example, papyrus and sheep-skin vellum codices, printing press, hard copy books, etc.

Thus, just as papyrus was soon-to-be-replaced by the ingenious novelty of sheep-skin vellum (prior to modern paper), so also have bulky storage disks now been replaced by handy thumb-drives.  However, since each technological advance contains the seeds of its own obsolescence, so also will the equivalent of "paper" eventually arise to replace thumb-drives.  Will thumb-drives simply become antiquated as everyone's cell-phone becomes even more technologically indispensable as files are just sent over the internet directly from phone to desk-top or lap-top?  This technology already exists, and therefore will it become normative? Will texting files to a desk-top or lap-top happen?  Again, this technology already exists, and all that is necessary will be for phones to simply expand their overall memory to store and transport larger files.  Ten years from now, just like the shift from bulky storage disks to thumb-drives we should see new, cheaper, more accessible options becoming normative.

Reference

Thornburg (2008b).  Emerging technologies and McLuhan’s Laws of Media.  Lake Barrington,

IL: Thornburg Center for Space Exploration