Red Queens and Increasing Returns

Should current supply-demand curves be the primary source for data concerning predictions of future technological growth or obsolescence?  If so, then how are we to explain why certain technologies cause a reciprocal exponential growth, a technological “arms race” if you will, while other technologies fall by the wayside?

 

How would a movie be shown at home or in a classroom without exponential growth in technology that the shift from video-cassettes to DVD’s demonstrated so that what was once cost-prohibitive is now almost entirely free? (Anderson, 2004)  http://www.ted.com/talks/chris_anderson_of_wired_on_tech_s_long_tail.html 

These types of questions defy easy answers due to a mathematical likelihood of certain technologies growing exponentially, yet other technologies being eclipsed.  As Thornburg (2008c) commented, “the name ‘Red Queen’ is attached to certain phenomena when a competition between two forces results in the rapid development of them both.” (p. 12)

Thus, like the Red Queen who tells Alice that one must run as fast as one can just to keep running in the same place so also must technological growth be understood as exponential improvements driven by the innate human tendency, individual and organizational, to simply not be left behind.

Here, I am a case study in Red Queen technological adoption.  I own a 3G Android phone, drive a 2005 Nissan Altima and own two televisions, three CD players, a DVD player, two laptops, and all as a single 41 year old man, and solely as an attempt to remain viable.  I am “normal” to my peers simply because I am neither a “techie” nor am I a Luddite.  I own technology for the purposes of higher education, political networking, non-profit volunteer work and hopefully direct public service in the near future.  I rarely rent DVD’s due to lack of available time balancing 2 – 3 types of employment, completing an Ed.S., looking toward either a full Ph.D. or M.B.A. and other vocational commitments.  Thus, when asked to watch a video-clip I will first turn to You-Tube, but when the video is not present in its full form then Amazon.com is an option for purchasing a DVD if it represents a longer-term investment.  In fact, through a mail order company I was even able to purchase an entire set of DVD’s with excerpts on the Dead Sea Scrolls, Ancient Roman Ruins, Early Christianity, Ancient Imperial China and an entire library of similar subjects.  Although certainly a financial investment such technology has enhanced my own teaching, eased burdens of class preparation and vastly expanded my own knowledge base.  Thus, in some ways, perhaps I am now the Red Queen and with other humanities scholars, political leaders, et al now needing to keep pace.

 

References

Anderson, C. (2004).  Chris Anderson of Wired on tech’s long tail [Video].  Retrieved from

            http://www.ted.com/talks/chris_anderson_of_wired_on_tech_s_long_tail.html
Thornburg, D. (2008c).  Red Queens, butterflies, and strange attractors: Imperfect lenses

into emergent technologies.  Lake Barrington, IL: Thornburg Center for Space Exploration